UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Llontop vs. Padilla
James Llontop
bet

Petrović vs. Liang
Ivana Petrović
Bet

Hayisaer vs. Benítez
Maheshate Hayisaer, TKO
Bet

Diniz vs. Lane
Jhonata Diniz, TKO, R1
I want Lane to be good because he's actually an athlete at Heavyweight. But Diniz is a freak so he'll get chinned.

Means vs. Medic
Tim Means, TKO, R3
I'm rocking with Tim here. Medic does not have that dawg in him and Tim is a dawg. Tim Means by vicious mogging.

Yahya vs. Henry
Victor Henry, DEC
Yahya is so old, man. Maybe a retirement fight. Heck, maybe a double retirement fight.

Hubbard vs. Figlak
Michal Figlak, DEC
Picking against the TUF 31 Fighters like my life depends on it.

Mayes vs. Machado
Caio Machado, DEC
Machado via unanimous obesity

Souza vs. Mann
Ketlen Souza, TKO, R2
I watched Mann get 30-24'd by Josefine Knutsson and decided to pick against her in her next fight, no questions asked.

Nicolau vs. Perez
Matheus Nicolau, DEC
Bet

Spann vs. Guskov
Ryan Spann
Don't bet

Silva vs. Lipski
Karine Silva, SUB
Bet

Diniz vs. Lane
Jhonata Diniz, TKO
Bet

Pearce vs. Onama
Jonathan Pearce
Don't bet

Means vs. Medic
Uros Medic, TKO
Bet

Yahya vs. Henry
Victor Henry, DEC
Bet

Hubbard vs. Figlak
Michal Figlak, DEC
Bet

Mayes vs. Machado
Caio Machado
don't bet

Souza vs. Mann
Ketlen Souza, DEC
bet

Mayes will be heavier than Machado

gabby benitezz

there goes my hero
hes ordinary

whats up guys
2 weeks without ufc
im going ******* insane

 UFC Vegas 91 Fight Card Summary

1.       Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez

·         Predicted Winner: Matheus Nicolau

·         Method of Victory: Decision

·         Confidence Score: 60%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Nicolau’s superior striking defense and exceptional takedown defense make him likely to edge out Perez in a five-round contest. His ability to manage distance and potentially counter Perez’s takedown attempts with better positioning and control should see him scoring points consistently over the duration of the fight. Nicolau's balanced approach will likely help him to outlast Perez, securing a decision win based on control, effective striking, and defensive prowess.

2.       Ryan Spann vs. Bogdan Guskov

·         Predicted Winner: Ryan Spann

·         Method of Victory: Submission

·         Predicted Round of Stoppage: Round 1

·         Confidence Score: 75%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Considering Spann’s grappling prowess and submission ability against Guskov’s poor strike differential and lack of ground game, Spann likely has the tools to bring the fight to the ground and secure a submission. Guskov’s tendency to absorb a lot of strikes and his focus on a striking-based strategy could play into Spann’s hands, especially if Spann can endure the initial barrages and implement his game plan effectively.

3.       Ariane Lipski vs. Karine Silva

·         Predicted Winner: Karine Silva

·         Method of Victory: Submission

·         Predicted Round of Stoppage: Round 2

·         Confidence Score: 75%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Silva’s aggressive grappling and high submission frequency make her a formidable threat if she can successfully take the fight to the ground. Given her proven track record in finishing fights via submission and Lipski’s relatively balanced but not outstanding striking defense, Silva is likely to find opportunities to secure a submission. Expect Silva to endure some early exchanges, find her opening for a takedown, and capitalize on her ground game to win via submission, likely in the middle rounds of the fight.

4.       Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diniz

·         Predicted Winner: Jhonata Diniz

·         Method of Victory: KO/TKO

·         Predicted Round of Stoppage: Round 1

·         Confidence Score: 65%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Given the aggressive nature of both fighters and their clear preference for stand-up battles, expect a fast-paced and potentially quick fight. Diniz’s higher output and his ability to land a high volume of strikes could overwhelm Lane early in the fight, especially considering Lane’s lack of grappling threats that might have offered a strategic alternative. Diniz’s propensity to engage in high-risk exchanges and his proven power are likely to result in a knockout in the early stages as both fighters look to establish dominance from the outset.

5.       Jonathan Pearce vs. David Onama

·         Predicted Winner: Jonathan Pearce

·         Method of Victory: Submission

·         Predicted Round of Stoppage: Round 3

·         Confidence Score: 60%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Given Pearce’s high volume in both striking and grappling, he is likely to put pressure on Onama from the start. As the fight progresses, Pearce’s ability to maintain a high pace could wear down Onama, especially considering Onama's higher strike absorption rate and weaker takedown defense. By the third round, expect Pearce to have fully asserted his grappling dominance, potentially leading to a submission victory as Onama fatigues and becomes more susceptible to mistakes on the ground.

6.       Tim Means vs. Uros Medic

·         Predicted Winner: Uros Medic

·         Method of Victory: TKO

·         Predicted Round of Stoppage: Round 2

·         Confidence Score: 70%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Medic’s striking power and aggressive approach might overwhelm Means, especially early in the fight. While Means will use his experience to survive the initial onslaught and attempt to turn the tide in the later rounds, Medic’s striking precision and power are likely to find their mark by the second round. Medic’s ability to maintain a high output and pressure might lead to catching Means with a decisive strike, considering the wear and potential slowing down of Means due to age and accumulated fight mileage.

7.       Rani Yahya vs. Victor Henry

·         Predicted Winner: Rani Yahya

·         Method of Victory: Submission

·         Predicted Round of Stoppage: Round 2

·         Confidence Score: 65%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Yahya’s ability to endure initial striking exchanges and his strategic approach to engage in grappling exchanges should see him weathering Henry’s striking storm early on. Expect Yahya to utilize his first round to find his range and timing for takedown attempts, gradually wearing down Henry's defenses. By the second round, Yahya’s persistent grappling attempts are likely to bear fruit, finding an opening for a submission as Henry begins to tire or makes a positional error under pressure. Yahya’s high submission average and Henry’s relative inexperience on the ground compared to Yahya will likely culminate in a submission victory for Yahya in the second round. This prediction banks on Yahya's proven track record of controlling fighters on the ground and securing submissions under pressure.

8.       Austin Hubbard vs. Michal Figlak

·         Predicted Winner: Austin Hubbard

·         Method of Victory: Decision

·         Confidence Score: 65%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Hubbard's superior striking and more solid defensive metrics, coupled with his experience, likely position him to control the pace and location of the fight. Expect Hubbard to exploit Figlak’s lower striking accuracy and defense through constant pressure and volume striking, potentially mixing in takedowns to score points and maintain dominance. Given Figlak's durability and Hubbard's tendency to win by decision, a decision victory seems the most probable outcome for Hubbard.

9.       Don'Tale Mayes vs. Caio Machado

·         Predicted Winner: Caio Machado

·         Method of Victory: KO/TKO

·         Predicted Round of Stoppage: Round 2

·         Confidence Score: 60%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Given Machado’s high striking output and accuracy, combined with his ability to defend against takedowns effectively, expect him to dominate the stand-up exchanges. Mayes may initially use his reach to keep Machado at bay, but Machado’s aggressive and precise striking is likely to break through Mayes' defenses as the fight progresses. The prediction for a stoppage in Round 2 considers that Mayes might withstand the initial barrage but will increasingly find it difficult to cope with Machado’s pace and precision, leading to a knockout or technical knockout in the middle of the fight.

10.     Marnic Mann vs. Ketlen Souza

·         Predicted Winner: Ivana Petrovic

·         Method of Victory: Submission

·         Predicted Round of Stoppage: Round 2

·         Confidence Score: 65%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Souza's better defensive metrics and potentially more disciplined striking approach give her the edge over Mann, who has shown vulnerabilities in striking defense and control. Souza’s ability to manage distance and perhaps use a more calculated striking approach could see her outpointing Mann over the course of the fight. There is less indication of either fighter finishing the other given the available data, suggesting that a decision victory is most likely.

11.     James Llontop vs. Chris Padilla

·         Predicted Winner: James Llontop

·         Method of Victory: Decision

·         Confidence Score: 70%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Llontop’s superior striking metrics and recent form suggest he can control the fight through his stand-up skills, keeping Padilla at bay with his reach and defensive capabilities. Given the lack of detailed data on Padilla's defensive skills and Llontop's strong defensive statistics, it’s reasonable to predict that Llontop will outstrike Padilla over the course of the fight, leading to a decision victory based on superior striking and control. Without specific details on Padilla’s typical fight approach and Llontop’s solid recent performance, the prediction leans towards Llontop maintaining his winning momentum.

12.     Ivana Petrovic vs. Liang Na

·         Predicted Winner: Ivana Petrovic

·         Method of Victory: Submission

·         Predicted Round of Stoppage: Round 2

·         Confidence Score: 75%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Given Petrovic’s effective grappling skills coupled with Liang’s aggressive but defensively vulnerable approach, Petrovic might use the first round to gauge Liang's rhythm and find openings. Expect Petrovic to capitalize on Liang's takedown attempts by either securing top position or catching Liang in a submission during a scramble or takedown attempt in the second round. Petrovic’s ability to manage distance and use her reach advantage could also help her mitigate Liang’s striking while setting up her own grappling engagements.

13.     Gabriel Benitez vs. Maheshate

·         Predicted Winner: Gabriel Benitez

·         Method of Victory: Decision

·         Confidence Score: 60%

·         Matchup Breakdown: Benitez might start strong, but Maheshate’s resilience and youthful vigor could see him weathering the storm, leading to a more competitive decision rather than a clear TKO. Benitez's experience still provides him an edge in scoring points and controlling the fight early. 

Dirty Bird v Medic is going to be violent 

bums fighting bigger bums kinda card

Just saw Volk at a pub, pretty dope

Thank you MMAi for 10 pages of breakdowns no one is going to read

Man Ryan Spann is really not making me very confident from his presser 😂 He's pretty funny in a corny way though, very humble

Brito vs Pearce cracks me up. 

Pearce: HE'S HITTING ME IN THE BACK OF THE HEAD REF
Brito: BLERELELELEH
Pearce: Geyd up n do sumin
Brito: BLERELELELE *STRANGLE* 
The end.

* Edited at 04.25.2024, 4:57 AM ET *

@Kermit 

I actually remember having to rewind that several times just to make sure I heard that correctly.

Nicolau vs. Perez
Matheus Nicolau, SUB, R1
Nicolaus will win easily Alex will not be ready then

Spann vs. Guskov
Bogdan Guskov, TKO, R1
Guskon will knock out brutally and enter top 15 and fight against his identical twin

Silva vs. Lipski
Karine Silva, SUB, R1
Silva as always will do her job quickly

Diniz vs. Lane
Jhonata Diniz, TKO, R1
Kickboxer will ko Chinny man

Pearce vs. Onama
David Onama, SUB, R1
Onama is better and get top fighter after quick submission

Means vs. Medic
Uros Medic, TKO, R2
Medic will do perfect finish

Yahya vs. Henry
Victor Henry, TKO, R2
Yahya will retire after been knocked out

Hubbard vs. Figlak
Michal Figlak, TKO, R2
I always sleep by the time Austin was fighting he need to get out from UFC

Mayes vs. Machado
Caio Machado, SUB, R1
Machado will show himself

Souza vs. Mann
Ketlen Souza, TKO, R2
Short people need to pay special attention for high kick😅

Llontop vs. Padilla
James Llontop, TKO, R2
James prepared better and do his job

Petrović vs. Liang
Ivana Petrović, TKO, R1
Na Liang is just meat for wolves

Hayisaer vs. Benítez
Maheshate Hayisaer, TKO, R1
It is time to retire for Benitez with brutal ko

The way Spann is talking and acting during the interviews, he's getting knocked out. He's being very arrogant, saying he didn't watch tape on the guy and he doesn't think it'll be a problem, etc.. 

@RichOsama 

not the first time he doesn't take the fight seriously, just can't trust the dude.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Mann winded up winning this fight, the weirdest things happen at the apex, plus WMMA is 50/50 no matter the odds. Souza is also coming off a nasty leglock injury, and it was her lead leg. Interested to see how she comes back from that. Might have to take Mann at +260 depending on how weigh ins go

@Rah123 

I read it twice

Nicolau vs. Perez
Alex Perez, TKO, R1
I think it’s a close fight that Perez takes. Either way I don’t think this fight goes the distance and that’s the bet I’m making.