Faber vs. McDonald

This is the official discussion thread for Faber vs. McDonald. Let's see what you've got.

I love Faber but this might be the first non-title fight he loses if he's not careful. Either way amazing fight.

* Edited at 09.11.2013, 11:01 PM ET *

Great fight, gotta lean toward The California Kid for now.

sucks for McDonald, he's been doing very good but Faber is on another level and right now he's on a roll, McDonald is gonna get wrestle ****** and quite possibly submitted, but whatever happens it's gonna be a lot of fun to watch

I think Faber has this ... I hope, however, that I'm completely wrong ...

I like both guys but am definitely more of a McDonald fan.  Seeing Barao submit him makes me think Faber will most likely do it too.  Is this a 3 round or 5 round fight?  I think that is gonna play a factor in if Faber can get the sub or not.  Most likely Faber by decision for me.

This fight is too soon for Michael in my opinion, I would of liked to have seen him work his way through 1-2 other contenders before facing Faber or rematching Barao. Awesome fight though, if 5 rounds Faber gets a submission in 3 probably a decision.

I like Faber, but McDonald is my favorite 135er. Faber will probably win this through grappling tho.

Rooting for Mayday. Faber is on a tear, though. Intriguing matchup.

Faber is virtually unstoppable when he's not fighting for a title lol, I would've said late 3rd rd SUB, but after seeing Maydays last win and how much he improved from his title loss, he might surprise people

Think it's just the pressure of the title fight for Faber? If so, he needs to get to a sports psychologist. He definitely seems more tentative in title fights

@amp I think it's the styles of the current champs more than anything. Aldo killed Faber b/c Faber didn't immediately try to wrestle (though, seeing as how he's KOed people that shoot for TDs, that may have been the reason for his gameplan) and the leg kicks Aldo threw took Faber completely out of his game. At 135, Cruz, being so long and so fast, was just too awkward of an opponent to be able to get his wrestling going. Since TAM fighters are fairly limited in their striking, Cruz was able to keep at range and frustrate Faber for the majority of the fight, though Faber did land a few good shots. Barao was essentially a mini-Aldo and avoided the TD from Faber while at the same time damaging his legs so that Faber wouldn't have the speed to be a real threat by the end of the 3rd round. Frankly, Aldo and Barao are just terrible style matchups for TAM fighters. Another reason I don't think it's psychological is that he's won 11 title fights in his career, including 6 WEC FW title bouts. Faber's lost to 4 people (Barao, Cruz, Aldo, Brown x2) in 8 years and I think he would beat Brown in a rematch (dude got old over night), but Cruz, Barao, and Aldo all have styles that are difficult match ups for a fighter with Faber's skill set.

I tend to agree with you because Aldo and Barao completely had him at a loss. Some people say that he won the Cruz fight. I don't, but I did have it all tied up after 4.

Sort of going off topic, but this goes back to your point that the fighters are getting better: I don't think Cruz could beat Barao on his best day, much less after 2 years of inactivity.

If it did become a psych problem, it had to have happened after the Brown losses. Sort of like the whole GSP syndrome where he began take fewer risks (albeit fighting smarter) after the Serra loss. 

@amp Yeah, like I said, I do believe the style match ups are just kryptonite for Faber. The Cruz fight was much closer than the Barao or Aldo fights, but it's more due to the style match up. Cruz doesn't use a lot of leg kicks to take away movement, he just relies on his quick angle changes, speed, and cardio to tire you out. Faber wasn't tired and that kept the fight competitive, whereas Aldo and Barao design their gameplan to take away movement, not necessarily set a high pace, just do damage in a manner such that mobility is limited and you become an easy target. Faber has a better chance of beating Cruz than Barao simply because of this style match up. (On a side note, assuming Faber can eat a few of McDonald's shots, which I think he can, his style is a good match up against McDonald's, so I see him winning that fight in December.)

As for your Cruz assessment, after the Jorgensen fight (when talks of a title shot for Barao really started picking up steam, and before Cruz's injury) I was thinking Cruz had about a 60% chance of beating Barao. After Barao's 2 most recent wins, I'm guessing 60% in favor of Barao when not considering Cruz's layoff and injury. Taking those things into account I got it as a 85% chance Barao beats Cruz. Cruz could come back better than ever, but since his style is so reliant on movement, particularly lateral movement, and speed I just don't see him being able to take Barao, especially because Barao is extremely fast and has the tools to take away Cruz's speed, which is key to defeating him.

Well, maybe, but did he dramatically change the way he fought after losing to Brown? No. He did the same stuff he always had, so I don't think it can really be argued that he had some kind of psychological crisis after the Brown fight. 

Pretty much agree with everything you said. After the Barao fight, I kinda felt bad for Faber. The whole reason he moved down (I believe) to 135 was because he got destroyed by Aldo. Then he has to fight the 135 version of Jose Aldo. Kid can't catch a break.

It's hard to pinpoint some evidence that Faber fights different after Brown. But after thinking about it. I think what happens is that he goes into the title fight amped and ready, then performs poorly in the first 10 min and then starts thinking "oh ****, it's happening again" and freezes up. He lost a lot of that killer instinct in rounds 3-5 against Aldo & Barao. But I guess that happens with almost every fighter except for a few fighters like Edgar and Condit.

I'm just speculating. I have no real evidence. Just thinking out loud.

This will be close

I see this similar to the Alcantara fight.

McDonald's got this IN THE BAG. McDonald should have more power than Faber, and he's improved so much since the Barao fight.

I'm a big fan of both guys but think McDonald will probably take this one.

Faber via guillotine or rear naked..