UFC 277: Peña vs. Nunes 2

The official Tapology discussion thread for the event!

Ankalaev vs. Smith
Magomed Ankalaev, DEC
Smith would be a great dog pick imo

Oh ****z it’s fight night baby❗️

Maybe it’s excuses, but Nunes apparently had a badly hurt knee and couldn’t train properly. And we have such a big sample size that she can normally keep a 5 round pace. I think she was clearly undertrained and planned on going all out and getting a first round knockout. And props to Peña, she withstood the storm. But I think Nunes is just better everywhere, and doubt she gasses again. 

I have never seen so many people come up with excuses for why a fighter lost. She lost because she was never great and she will lose again and fade into irrelevance. 

Pena - TKO/SUB  
Kara-France - TKO/DEC
Pavlovich - TKO 
Pantoja - TKO/SUB  
Ankalaev  TKO/DEC
Semelsberger TKO
Dober - TKO/DEC
Abdelwahab - TKO 
Klose - DEC  
Morales - TKO/SUB  
Edwards - DEC
Potieria - TKO/SUB
Diamond - TKO

Peña vs. Nunes II
Julianna Peña, SUB, R2
hedge. i think amanda is the better fighter, but who knows where she's at mentally at this point, so i'll take pena and hope the cringe can end.

Moreno vs. Kara-France II
Brandon Moreno, DEC
brandon probably has the edge on the ground and has the speed to hang standing.

Lewis vs. Pavlovich
Sergei Pavlovich, TKO, R2
i don't think lewis will be active enough and i don't expect him to force a grapple where he may actually have the advantage.

Pantoja vs. Perez
Alexandre Pantoja, DEC
perez finds ways to get himself caught and i think pantoja can ride the back.

Ankalaev vs. Smith
Magomed Ankalaev, DEC
i feel like magomed can win wherever it goes, smith is gonna have to land something big to change the pace.

Morono vs. Semelsberger
Alex Morono, DEC
semi will swing hard, but i think alex can get inside and grind the clinch and maybe find a trip.

Dober vs. Alves
Drew Dober, DEC
alves will have his moment to jump guillotine, but i'll say dober survives and his gas tank carries him through later rounds.

Mayes vs. Abdelwahab
Hamdy Abdelwahab, TKO, R1
i don't really have faith in mayes so i'll take a shot in the dark on the big wrestler and say he gets inside before getting smoked.

Klose vs. García
Drakkar Klose, DEC
feeling like klose's pressure should be enough to get pasts rafa's strength.

Morales vs. Fugitt
Michael Morales, DEC
don't know about fugitt but he kinda looks like rich franklin, but morales has slick boxing so i'm going with him.

Kim vs. Edwards
Ji Yeon Kim, DEC
think kim's volume will overwhelm edwards after the weight miss.

Negumereanu vs. Potieria
Ihor Potieria, DEC
no clue about ihor, but he's bigger and that might matter.

Cosce vs. Diamond
Blood Diamond, TKO, R1
on paper, this is all orion, but the weight miss has me skeptical of his gas tank.

IF I WIN, I'LL GIVE 12%.

GIVE YOUR BEST PICKS!

I heard Nunes say Julianna got “lucky”. I was confident in Peña before, but that quote makes me believe that Julianna will win even more now. Usually when people say that about fights they lose again

Pena - TKO/SUB  
Pavlovich - TKO 
Pantoja - TKO/SUB  
Ankalaev  TKO/DEC
Semelsberger TKO
Dober - TKO/DEC
Klose - DEC  
Morales - TKO/SUB  

* Edited at 07.30.2022, 11:38 AM ET *

"she can normally keep a 5 round pace."


against Valentina, who keeps a very steady pace.. and she grappled GDR for 5 rounds.


but we have not seen her keep a high pace for 5 rounds, not the kind of pace Pena put on her last fight thats for sure

Just remember that Julianna only lost 4 times, Nunes lost 5 times. It says a lot, and thats definitely tells who is better. 

True, but Nunes has had more fights than her & she has won more far more times comparatively. 

Additionally, Nunes has won 81% of her fights while Peña has won 73% of the time.

* Edited at 07.30.2022, 12:45 PM ET *

Pena vs. Nunes II
Honestly it's wild to predict. I didn't see too much in their first fight that convinced me Pena is better anywhere. Once Nunes gassed she succumbed to Pena's basic, sloppy 1-2's and a RNC your average BJJ kid a) wouldn't tap to and b) would escape from. Nunes can and has paced herself against better fighters (unless I'm totally sleeping on Pena), she's not old, and skill from skill is better than Pena almost everywhere. But if Pena's cardio and heart prove to be better once again - and they may well do, then who knows?! I may drop a teeny bet on Pena because of the odds but I think Nunes wins this by decision after realising she can't whoop Pena inside a round.

Moreno vs. KKF II
They've both grown as fighters since they last met that's for sure. KKF stuffing a lot of Askarov's grappling was both impressive and surprising, but Askarov relied too heavily on his grappling. Moreno can out-strike KKF as he did previously, he can definitely out-grapple KKF, he has way more 5 round experience and a better gas tank to boot. Moreno by 4th round submission.

Lewis vs. Pavlovich
I'd love to see Derrick win here but I think he's almost checked out. He has multiple other income sources so the hunger isn't there and his cardio is almost zero - which shows no sign of changing. Aside from merc'ing Daukaus who had no business being in there with a man the size of Derrick, he couldn't as much as spit on Gane let alone hit him and he looked totally checked out. Again with Tai Derrick didn't appear to be KO'd, he just had no passion for being hit as hard as he can hit and so he checked out when the opportunity popped up. Pavlovich isn't as skilled as Gane or as powerful as Tai, but he's a big boy and a first round finisher - so I can see Derrick checking out here if he can't impose his will inside 5 minutes. Pavlovich by 3rd round KO.

Something I forget is that Julianna has only lost 2 times in the ufc. Granted she has had extended layoffs but only losing to Shevchenko and GDR in her UFC career is very impressive imo

Short Notice UFC Results in 22’ 

Total after #UFCLondon = 8-27 (22.9%) 

Underdogs = 1-20 (4.8%) 
Pick Em’s = 0-3 (0%)
Favorites = 7-4 (63.6%)

lots of short notice replacements on this card... thought these stats were interesting... and this is going off closing lines

* Edited at 07.30.2022, 1:21 PM ET *

1-20 holy ****🤣 was the one underdog victor Henry? 

yeah i think the one underdog upset was victor henry 

* Edited at 07.30.2022, 1:21 PM ET *

Edwards is the only short notice fighter who is a favorite tonight, good thing she's the only one I picked

@solancol that’s actually wild. I had no idea short notice underdogs were that bad this year